If data tells a story, then Decipher Investigative Intelligence’s 2026 Annual Report tells a story of firms closing doors they once left open, of rainmakers who look better on paper than in practice, and of a lateral market that’s declining in volume but increasing in competition.

Not to mention a consolidation wave that shows no signs of cresting.

It has all the makings of a high-stakes drama. But dramatic narratives aside, deep currents are moving through the legal market right now, directly impacting careers. And it’s never been more important to understand what the numbers and the narrative behind them are actually saying.

Trend #1: The bar for equity partnership keeps going up

For years, firms have been slowly shutting the gate on equity partnership by raising revenue thresholds, extending timelines, and expanding the non-equity tier.

Decipher’s 2026 data found that the trend isn’t slowing down. Equity partner growth across the AmLaw 1–200 came in at just 3%, the lowest rate of any lawyer category for the fourth straight year, while non-equity partners grew at three times that pace.

Moreover, within the AmLaw 100, equity partners account for less than half of all partners for the first time. In the AmLaw 101–200, equity still holds a slim majority at 54%, but that share has declined every year for the past five years.

What this means for rainmakers

Firms appear to be protecting profitability by limiting ownership expansion. That dynamic actually strengthens the position of partners with a credible, portable book. When equity slots are scarce, proven revenue generators become more competitive to acquire.

However, it also means that partners evaluating internal advancement should assess whether waiting for equity at their current firm is realistic or whether outside options offer a clearer path. If you’re unsure how to think about your value in that conversation, this post on rainmaker compensation is a good starting point.

Trend #2: Non-equity is increasingly common, and not all non-equity is the same

Decipher’s 2026 data found that non-equity partner growth has outpaced both equity partner growth and overall sector growth every year since 2021, with the AmLaw 100 non-equity ranks rising 10% in 2025 alone.

Yet, tracking the growth of non-equity ranks is less critical than understanding what that status actually signifies at any given firm. At some firms, it’s a transition point with a clear path to equity. At others, it’s a permanent tier dressed up with a partner title.

What this means for rainmakers

A non-equity offer isn’t automatically a step backward, and an equity partnership might not be the goal for every attorney, but the conversation demands a different set of questions than an equity offer does, like:

How long do partners typically stay in the non-equity tier at this firm?
What are the stated criteria for advancement?
How many non-equity partners made equity in the last three years?

The answers to these questions will give you an idea of whether you’re being invited into the firm or being managed within one.

Trend #3: Rainmakers are moving less, but the competition for them is intensifying

The lateral market is often described in terms of total volume, but looking at total volume alone can obscure the fact that partner moves and associate moves are moving in opposite directions.

Decipher’s 2026 data found that nearly 23,000 lawyers made lateral moves in 2025, a 5% increase over 2024. But partner lateral moves totaled 4,906, down 3% from 2024, and Decipher projects a further 5% decline in 2026.

Meanwhile, associate lateral moves rose 15% year over year, indicating that the surveyed firms are investing heavily in execution capacity rather than partner headcount.

What this means for rainmakers

If you’re a partner looking to make a lateral move, you might be concerned about a (relatively) cooling market. But if you have a strong book, you actually may have more latitude to negotiate support, team resources, and platform commitments than you did in a higher-volume hiring market precisely because fewer partners are moving. (If you’re still working through whether a move makes sense at all, these are the reasons most rainmakers ultimately pull the trigger.)

On the other hand, if associate support is a priority for your practice, this is the moment to ask for it explicitly. Firms that are building infrastructure around rainmaker hires are already thinking in those terms. A candidate who comes in with a clear picture of what they need to execute is easier to say yes to than one who raises it after the offer is made.

Trend #4: Your claimed book and your portable book are not the same number

The number you claim as your portable book of business and what it really is has long been a point of tension in the lateral hiring process.

Firms have always known this gap exists; that’s the point of the often long and intensive due diligence process. But Decipher’s 2026 data found that the distance between the two numbers has never been wider. They found that lateral partner candidates claimed 43% more business than the 2021–2024 average, about $945,000 more per candidate, the highest average claimed book on record. But at the same time:

Client portability dropped to 57% in 2025, down from 65% in 2021
The average number of clients listed fell from 24.7 in 2022 to 15.6 in 2025
40% of lateral partner candidates triggered due diligence red flags tied to business development or client relationships, which is 16% above the prior four-year average

What this means for rainmakers

Know your real book of business before someone calculates it for you. A big part of portability is how defensible each client relationship is, how long you’ve been the primary contact, and whether the work follows the lawyer or the firm.

It also means being honest about concentration risk. A book built around two or three large clients looks very different to a firm’s diligence team than a book with fifteen distributed relationships, even if the total revenue is identical. For a deeper look at how firms think about this, this post on law firm economics is worth reading before you go into any lateral conversation.

Trend #5: Practice area determines your leverage

Not all practices are experiencing this market in the same way. The post-COVID surge in specialty practices has leveled off in many areas, while foundational practices continue to drive the bulk of lateral activity.

Decipher’s 2026 data found that Corporate/Transactions and Litigation together drove the primary volume of the 2025 lateral market, accounting for roughly 60% of partner headcount nationwide. The divergence between practices was sharp:

Corporate/Transactions: 802 partner moves, up 35% from 2024
Litigation: 1,416 moves, up 16%
Tax: 92 moves, down 44%
Trusts and Estates: 70 moves, down 60%
Bankruptcy/Restructuring: 104 moves, down 35%

Practice area volume is only part of the story, though. Whether clients follow when a partner moves is important to assess, and that varies just as dramatically by practice.

Compliance/Regulatory portability reached 81% in 2025, 19 points above its eight-year average, reflecting clients who are choosing to stay with their advisor through firm changes in an increasingly volatile regulatory environment.

Bankruptcy/Restructuring, by contrast, dropped to 11% portability, suggesting that in a cooler restructuring market, client relationships are staying with the firm, not the lawyer.

What this means for rainmakers

Practice demand is increasingly concentrated, and that concentration directly affects your leverage.

For example, Corporate and Litigation partners are entering a market that wants them, while Compliance/Regulatory partners have the added advantage of clients actively following them. However, if you’re in a practice that surged earlier in the cycle (e.g., Tax, Restructuring, Trusts and Estates) and you’re weighing a move, think carefully about how you’re positioning yourself before coming to the table.

Trend #6: Geography is not neutral

Decipher’s 2026 data found significant variations in the market across the country.

San Francisco (up 11%), Dallas (up 2%), Boston (up 4%), and Miami (up 5%) all posted year-over-year growth in partner move volume, while Philadelphia (down 40%), Chicago (down 21%), and Houston (down 13%) declined.

Decipher analysis links the growth markets to sector-specific demand, e.g., AI and venture in San Francisco, energy in Dallas, biotech and pharma in Boston, international trade and regulatory in Miami.

Portability by location varied sharply. Nashville reached 81%, up 27 points over the eight-year average. San Francisco reached 79%, up 8 points. New York came in at 43%, down 22 points. Chicago reached 42%, down 24 points.

What this means for rainmakers

High-growth, sector-linked markets tend to offer a stronger combination of opportunity and client mobility than more established but institutionally sticky markets.

That doesn’t mean every partner in a cooling market should be thinking about relocating, though. But it does mean that if geography is already a variable you’re open to, or if you have clients in multiple markets, it’s worth factoring into how you evaluate your options.

(And if you’re firmly rooted where you are, understanding your local market’s dynamics is just as important as understanding your practice’s.)

Trend #7: M&A is reshaping the competitive landscape

Law firm consolidation has been a background condition for years, but the 2025 data suggests it’s moving into the foreground, and the profile of deals is changing in ways that matter to partners evaluating their options.

Law firm M&A reached 85 transactions in 2025, a five-year high, with mergers accounting for 93% of all deals. The pace has been accelerated; the first three weeks of 2026 produced 8 transactions.

It’s useful to note that the average acquiring firm was far smaller than in 2024, with average headcount falling from 1,084 to 399, while the average acquired firm more than doubled in size from 38 to 87 attorneys.

This appears to be smaller and mid-market firms buying what would take years to develop (e.g., niche capabilities, regional footholds, and established client relationships) rather than trying to build them lateral partner by lateral partner.

What this means for rainmakers

Competitive landscapes can change quickly when firms buy rather than build. A practice that looked underserved at a prospective firm may look very different after an acquisition closes. It raises a question worth asking about any firm you’re evaluating: Is this firm more likely to act as an acquirer, a target, or a bystander in a consolidating market?

What the Decipher report data means for you and your practice

The 2025 data reflects a legal talent market that’s still active, albeit more selective. For rainmakers, the message isn’t that opportunity has disappeared. It’s that leverage now depends more specifically on where you sit in your practice, geography, portability, and overall leverage than on broad market momentum.

Before responding to recruiter outreach or exploring a move, it’s worth taking inventory of your actual position on each dimension. These blogs can help you understand where to start:

The 6-Pillars framework is also a useful way to assess where you are and where you want to go. And if you want to talk through what the data means for your specific situation, we’re happy to have that conversation.